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HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 1998

..COR TO ADV NUMBER

DEEP CONVECTION IS MORE SYMMETRIC AND THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  HOWEVER...THE EYEWALL REMAINS POORLY
DEFINED ON ITS NORTHWEST PORTION.  NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
MEASURED WINDS OF 85 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
AND 985 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 85
KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  MOST OF THE MODELS MAINTAIN LOW SHEAR OVER THE
HURRICANE SO A CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. GEORGES IS
FORECAST TO REACH CATEGORY 3 STATUS BY 36 HOURS OR SO.  
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 305/12.  THE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
UNCHANGED...SO THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL
TRACK AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK BRINGING THE
CORE OF THE HURRICANE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. 

ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM LOUISIANA EASTWARD SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0900Z 23.8N  80.7W    85 KTS
12HR VT     25/1800Z 25.0N  82.1W    90 KTS
24HR VT     26/0600Z 26.2N  84.0W    95 KTS
36HR VT     26/1800Z 27.5N  85.5W   100 KTS
48HR VT     27/0600Z 29.0N  87.0W   100 KTS
72HR VT     28/0600Z 31.5N  89.0W    65 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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