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HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 24 1998

...COR TO 72 HOUR POSITION

NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN OBSERVING GEORGES DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN OSCILLATING AROUND 989
AND 991 MB. THE PLANE ALSO REPORTED THAT AN EYEWALL IS FORMING.
BASED ON REPORTS FROM THE PLANE AND OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 70 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE
TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW AND BANDING FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH
GEORGES. MOST OF THE MODELS MAINTAIN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH
LOW SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AND OTHER CONDITIONS 
ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THIS PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AS SOON AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER WATER LATER TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH
LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST SO A STRONGER THAN
FORECAST HURRICANE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.  

INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE
MODELS THAT THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 3
DAYS.  ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF GEORGES SHOULD MOVE OFF CUBA
TODAY AND CROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS AND THEN
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. RESIDENTS ALONG THE GULF COAST
SHOULD BEGIN TO PAY MORE ATTENTION TO THE PROGRESS OF GEORGES.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/1500Z 21.5N  77.5W    70 KTS
12HR VT     25/0000Z 22.5N  78.9W    70 KTS
24HR VT     25/1200Z 24.1N  80.8W    80 KTS
36HR VT     26/0000Z 25.5N  82.5W    85 KTS
48HR VT     26/1200Z 27.0N  84.0W    90 KTS
72HR VT     27/1200Z 29.5N  86.5W    95 KTS
 
 
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