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HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 24 1998
 
THE HURRICANE IS STILL CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND ESTIMATING THE
LOCATION AND INITIAL MOTION IS DIFFICULT.  THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 300/10 BASED ON LIMITED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND A
POORLY DEFINED CENTER ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ON NOAA
AIRCRAFT RADAR AND ON A CUBAN RADAR.
 
TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...
THE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND THE LOW NEAR THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL CONTINUE TO BE THE CONTROLLING FACTORS AND ARE NOT FORECAST
TO CHANGE RADICALLY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFDL...UKMET
AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CENTER MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR KEY WEST IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AND CONTINUING TO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN 72 HOURS.  COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE...THE UKMET CHANGED LITTLE...THE NOGAPS
MOVED TO THE RIGHT AND THE GFDL MOVED SLIGHTLY LEFT.  THE LBAR IS
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE THREE MODELS JUST MENTIONED.  THE
AVIATION MODEL TURNS GEORGES NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN FLORIDA AND
THE ETA AND NGM SHOW THIS ALSO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT NOT
AS FAR AS THE GFDL...NOGAPS AND UKMET WOULD SUGGEST.
 
A NOAA AIRCRAFT WIND REPORT OF 74 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER OVER WATER ALLOWS FOR GEORGES TO BE KEPT AS A MINIMAL
HURRICANE WITH 65 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS HELD TOGETHER VERY WELL EVEN
THOUGH THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE APPEARS DISORGANIZED.  WITH A
FORECAST OF NOT TOO MUCH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK COMBINED WITH WARM GULF WATERS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR
INTENSIFICATION AS THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WATER BY 24
HOURS.  IT SHOULD BE REALIZED THAT OUR SKILL IN FORECASTING
INTENSITY IS QUITE LIMITED COMPARED TO OUR TRACK FORECASTING SKILL.
 
HAVING SAID ALL THAT...IT IS PRUDENT TO ISSUE A HURRICANE WARNING
FOR EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.  I WOULD LOVE TO WAIT LONGER
BEFORE ISSUING WARNINGS TO MINIMIZE SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY
INVOLVED.  A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A MINIMAL CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE
THAT MIGHT STRENGTHEN IS NOT THE SAME KIND OF SITUATION AS HAVING A
CATEGORY 3 OR 4 HURRICANE HEADING RIGHT AT THE WARNING AREA.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0900Z 21.1N  76.7W    65 KTS
12HR VT     24/1800Z 21.9N  78.1W    65 KTS
24HR VT     25/0600Z 23.3N  79.9W    70 KTS
36HR VT     25/1800Z 24.8N  81.8W    80 KTS
48HR VT     26/0600Z 26.2N  83.3W    85 KTS
72HR VT     27/0600Z 29.0N  86.0W    85 KTS
 
 
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