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HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 23 1998
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT GEORGES HAS MAINTAINED A WELL
DEFINED BANDING PATTERN WITH A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
RESEMBLES AN EYE.  CLOUD MOTIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THIS EYE-LIKE FEATURE. THE SYSTEM LACKS
AN INNER CORE AND IS PROBABLY ONLY A BORDER LINE HURRICANE AT THIS
TIME.  THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR RESTRENGTHENING
AND LAND IS THE ONLY IMPEDIMENT.
 
SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN MEANDERING WHILE INTERACTING
WITH THE OROGRAPHY OF HAITI AND CUBA...IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO HAVE
A GOOD ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION BUT THE SYSTEM OVERALL HAS
BEEN WOBBLING WESTWARD.  HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS.  ON THIS TRACK GEORGES
WILL BE MOVING OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THEREAFTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER FLORIDA STRAITS OR SOUTH FLORIDA BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS.
 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE CRITICAL ...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA OR
OVER CUBAN MOUNTAINS. THAT WOULD DELAY THE STRENGTHENING BUT THE
TRACK BEYOND 36 HOURS WOULD NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/2100Z 19.8N  75.1W    65 KTS
12HR VT     24/0600Z 20.6N  76.8W    60 KTS
24HR VT     24/1800Z 22.0N  78.5W    60 KTS
36HR VT     25/0600Z 23.5N  80.0W    70 KTS
48HR VT     25/1800Z 25.5N  82.0W    80 KTS
72HR VT     26/1800Z 28.0N  84.5W    90 KTS
 
 
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