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HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 23 1998
 
HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT GEORGES HAS
MAINTAINED A WELL DEFINED CLOUD PATTERN IN SPITE OF THE HURRICANE
HAVING MOVED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS
OR MORE. THERE IS A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER THAT RESEMBLES AN EYE
WITH PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES AND DEEP CONVECTION. THE
HURRICANE LACKS OF AN INNER CORE AT THIS TIME.  THE ATMOSPHERE
APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR RESTRENGTHENING AND LAND IS THE ONLY
IMPEDIMENT.

BEST ESTIMATES OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/13. HOWEVER...THIS IS
VERY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE HURRICANE JUST MOVED OFF HAITI AND IS
REFORMING. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ON A GENERAL WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS. ON THIS TRACK GEORGES WILL BE
MOVING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA AND THEREAFTER THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS OR SOUTH FLORIDA BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS. 

THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE CRITICAL ...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA OR
OVER CUBAN MOUNTAINS. THAT WOULD DELAY THE STRENGTHENING BUT THE
TRACK BEYOND 36 HOURS WOULD NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR. 
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/1500Z 19.7N  74.2W    65 KTS
12HR VT     24/0000Z 20.5N  76.1W    65 KTS
24HR VT     24/1200Z 22.4N  78.0W    75 KTS
36HR VT     25/0000Z 24.0N  80.5W    85 KTS
48HR VT     25/1200Z 25.5N  82.0W    95 KTS
72HR VT     26/1200Z 28.0N  84.5W    95 KTS
 
 
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