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HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 23 1998
 
THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A CENTER TO TRACK ON INFRARED IMAGERY.  THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/13...NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN 6
HOURS AGO.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A
NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS...EXCEPT LBAR AND THE AVIATION
MODEL WHICH TURN GEORGES NORTHWARD AFTER 48 HOURS...APPARENTLY
FINDING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT THE OTHER MODELS
DO NOT SEE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF GFDL MODEL...PUTTING THE
CENTER JUST OFF THE LOWER FLORIDA WEST COAST IN 72 HOURS AND IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN 48 HOURS.  THE UKMET MODEL IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE
GFDL AND THE NOGAPS IS CONSIDERABLY LEFT...TO NEAR HAVANA IN 72
HOURS.
 
THE WIND SPEED IS ASSUMED TO HAVE DECREASED TO 65 KNOTS WHILE THE
HURRICANE IS OVER LAND.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY ASSUMES THE CENTER
WILL BE OVER WATER AND THAT THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION...EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK IS ON THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA FOR 24 HOURS.
 
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...SINCE
THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN OVER LAND FOR A WHILE.  THE CENTER IS NOT
WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE...THERE HAVE BEEN FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND THE RECON AIRCRAFT COULD NOT FLY INTO THE HURRICANE OVER LAND.
I AM NOT PLEASED TO PUT UP A HURRICANE WATCH FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...BUT AM DOING SO AS A STRATEGY OF LEAST REGRET.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0900Z 19.5N  73.3W    65 KTS
12HR VT     23/1800Z 20.5N  75.2W    70 KTS
24HR VT     24/0600Z 22.0N  77.6W    75 KTS
36HR VT     24/1800Z 23.5N  79.5W    85 KTS
48HR VT     25/0600Z 25.0N  81.2W    95 KTS
72HR VT     26/0600Z 27.0N  83.0W    95 KTS
 
 
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