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HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 1998

THE EYE HAS SURPRISINGLY MAINTAINED ITS IDENTITY IN SPITE OF MOVING
OVER LAND DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IT WAS CLEARLY SEEN ON VIS AND
IR SATELLITE IMAGES UNTIL RECENTLY WHEN IT HAS BEGUN TO FILL.  THE
HURRICANE HAS EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND BANDING FEATURES. GEORGES IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND HAITI TODAY BUT HOW MUCH WEAKENING DEPENDS HOW LONG THE
HURRICANE STAYS OVER LAND. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REGAIN MUCH
OF ITS STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER WATER.
 
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/12 AND SOME DEVIATION OF
THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE
HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE VERY HIGH MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA.
THEREAFTER... ONCE OVER WATER AGAIN...THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE
WILL BE CONTROLLED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...WHICH IN
FACT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN THROUGH 72 HOURS.  TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND BASICALLY ALL OF THE MODELS
BRING GEORGES WITHIN A BELT BETWEEN HAVANA AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY 60
HOURS OR SO.   

THE LAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BECAUSE A
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE COULD FORCE THE HURRICANE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A SLIGHT WEAKENING
OF THE RIDGE MAY KEEP THE HURRICANE OFFSHORE.  IN ANY CASE...
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE
HURRICANE VERY CLOSELY.  THE TIME FOR ISSUING A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
A PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS IS APPROACHING.

AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/2100Z 18.8N  70.3W    95 KTS
12HR VT     23/0600Z 19.4N  72.1W    70 KTS
24HR VT     23/1800Z 20.4N  74.3W    70 KTS
36HR VT     24/0600Z 21.7N  76.5W    80 KTS
48HR VT     24/1800Z 23.0N  78.5W    95 KTS
72HR VT     25/1800Z 26.0N  82.0W   100 KTS
 
 
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