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HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 1998

HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR FROM SAN JUAN
SHOW A SPECTACULAR EYE PRESENTATION MOVING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. BOTH SATELLITE
AND RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT GEORGES HAS STRENGTHENED
AGAIN AND SATELLITE WIND ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 115 KNOTS.
RECON JUST FOUND THAT THE PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 962 MB AND PEAK
WINDS OF 117 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 105
KNOTS.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TODAY BUT HOW MUCH WEAKENING
DEPENDS HOW LONG THE HURRICANE STAYS OVER LAND. THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO REGAIN MUCH OF ITS STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
IT MOVES OVER WATER.

SINCE THE HURRICANE HAS DECREASED ITS FORWARD MOTION...THERE IS MORE
TIME FOR THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE TO EVOLVE. IF THE
RIDGE WEAKENS...THE HURRICANE COULD BEGIN A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK
SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED. AT THIS TIME MOST...OF THE MODELS ARE
BRINGING THE HURRICANE VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST BY
72 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE LAST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BECAUSE A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE
RIDGE COULD FORCE THE HURRICANE OVER FLORIDA AND A SLIGHT WEAKENING
MAY KEEP THE HURRICANE OFFSHORE.  IN ANY CASE...WE SHOULD MONITOR
THE HURRICANE VERY CLOSELY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/1500Z 18.3N  69.1W   105 KTS
12HR VT     23/0000Z 18.7N  71.0W    70 KTS
24HR VT     23/1200Z 19.8N  73.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     24/0000Z 21.0N  75.5W    80 KTS
48HR VT     24/1200Z 23.0N  77.8W    95 KTS
72HR VT     25/1200Z 26.0N  80.5W   100 KTS
 
 
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