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HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 1998
 
AIR FORCE RECON AND THE SAN JUAN RADAR SHOW A WELL DEFINED CENTER
OVER WATER JUST WEST OF PUERTO RICO.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
275/12.  THE AVIATION MODEL INITIALIZED THE CENTER ABOUT 270 NMI
NORTHEAST OF THE ACTUAL CENTER.  THIS SENDS THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD.
ALL OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE MOVES THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK WITH LITTLE OR NO DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE INITIAL MOTION.  THE GFDL...NOGAPS
AND LBAR ALL SHOW THE CENTER JUST SOUTH OF FLORIDA IN THREE DAYS AND
SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  AFTER THREE DAYS  THE NOGAPS TURNS
NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH OF
THE HURRICANE.  THE GFDL/AVN MODEL SHOWS A NARROW EAST/WEST RIDGE
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AT THREE DAYS.  

IN ANY CASE...THE FORECAST TRACK IMPLIES A SERIOUS THREAT TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN THREE TO FOUR DAYS.
 
THE PRESSURE WAS 974 MB WHEN RECON WENT INTO THE CENTER AT 05Z.  AT
0631Z...THE PRESSURE FELL TO 970 MB.  PERHAPS THERE WAS SOME
WEAKENING OVER PUERTO RICO BUT NOT MUCH.  AT 09Z THE WIND IS
ESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS...THE SAME AS BEFORE LANDFALL.  CONSIDERABLE
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE
MOVES OVER HISPANIOLA.  BUT STRENGTHENING IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AFTER
THAT DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE TRACK GOES TO CUBA.
 
LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0900Z 18.1N  68.0W    95 KTS
12HR VT     22/1800Z 18.2N  70.2W    95 KTS
24HR VT     23/0600Z 19.3N  72.7W    70 KTS
36HR VT     23/1800Z 20.4N  74.7W    85 KTS
48HR VT     24/0600Z 21.6N  76.7W    90 KTS
72HR VT     25/0600Z 24.0N  80.0W    95 KTS
 
 
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