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HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 21 1998
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
SHOWS THAT GEORGES IS STILL A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE WITH A FAIRLY
GOOD CENTER PRESENTATION AND ESTIMATED 100 KNOT WINDS AT 3000 FT...
THE ELEVATION OF THE RADAR SITE.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD
TOPS OF -80C ARE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO AT THIS TIME.
SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS GEORGES TRANSVERSES PUERTO RICO
TONIGHT.  SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS WITH MUCH HIGHER
GUSTS MAINLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE MOST CURRENT ANALYSES FROM
THE CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS CONTINUES TO SHOW
VERTICAL SHEAR MOSTLY LESS THAN 20 KNOTS ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH
OF GEORGES. OTHERWISE THE ONLY HINDRANCE TO STRENGTHENING ARE THE
LARGER ISLANDS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES CHAIN...NAMELY HISPANIOLA.
 
RADAR FIXES FROM THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D INDICATES THAT THE FORWARD
MOTION HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IN 270/
13 KNOTS.  A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED 
TO RESUME TUESDAY. RADAR-BASED FIXES PLACE THE CENTER OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF PUERTO RICO IN THE VICINITY OF PONCE.
 
THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF GEORGES IS FORECAST TO PERSIST SUCH
THAT A SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY TURN SEEMS UNLIKELY. THE 00Z TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED BUT CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME SPREAD...WITH THE UKMET THE EASTERN-MOST TRACK...JUST
EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS... WHILE THE GFDL IS THE WESTERN-MOST
TRACK WITH A 72 HOUR POSITION JUST OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF CUBA.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
AND BRINGS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY
72 HOURS.
 
BASED ON THE NEW TRACK FORECAST THE HURRICANE WATCHES FOR HAITI...
THE TURKS AND CACIOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ARE BEING
UPGRADED TO HURRICANE WARNINGS.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0300Z 18.1N  66.9W    95 KTS
12HR VT     22/1200Z 18.5N  68.9W    90 KTS
24HR VT     23/0000Z 19.4N  71.3W    85 KTS
36HR VT     23/1200Z 20.4N  73.5W    90 KTS
48HR VT     24/0000Z 21.3N  75.4W    95 KTS
72HR VT     25/0000Z 23.0N  78.0W   100 KTS
 
 
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