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HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 21 1998

THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN A LITTLE AND THE RADAR PRESENTATION
IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH A GOOD BIT OF BANDING OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE.  SINCE THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH LAND...
RAPID DEEPENING IS UNLIKELY BEFORE THE EYEWALL REACHES PUERTO RICO.
THERE IS STILL A HINT OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA...BUT
THIS APPEARS TO BE LESSENING.  LATEST ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY
OF WISCONSIN CIMSS SHOW VERTICAL SHEAR MOSTLY LESS THAN 20 KNOTS
ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE HURRICANE.  OTHERWISE THE ONLY
IMPEDIMENTS TO STRENGTHENING ARE THE LAND MASSES OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE BEING HISPANIOLA.  

USING RECON FIXES...AND SMOOTHING OUT THE TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES FROM
RADAR...GIVES A CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/14 WHICH IS ABOUT THE
SAME AS BEFORE.  THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS FROM 12Z SHOW LITTLE
EVIDENCE THAT THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GEORGES WILL GIVE
WAY ENOUGH TO ALLOW A SIGNIFICANT TURN TO THE NORTH DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT BUT
STILL SHOWS SOME SPREAD...BETWEEN FORECAST POSITIONS NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA...AS GIVEN BY DEEP- AND MEDIUM LAYER BAM AND
THE BAROTROPIC TO JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AS GIVEN BY THE
U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL.  UNFORTUNATELY..THE LATTER MODELS FORECAST
TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTING FARTHER AND FARTHER TO THE WEST WITH EACH
NEW RUN.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/2100Z 18.0N  65.6W    95 KTS
12HR VT     22/0600Z 18.5N  67.7W    95 KTS
24HR VT     22/1800Z 19.2N  70.1W    90 KTS
36HR VT     23/0600Z 20.0N  72.5W    80 KTS
48HR VT     23/1800Z 21.0N  74.5W    85 KTS
72HR VT     24/1800Z 23.0N  77.5W    90 KTS
 
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