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HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 21 1998
 
HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D RADAR
OBSERVATIONS FROM SAN JUAN SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE MAY BE GETTING
A LITTLE BETTER-ORGANIZED.  HOWEVER LATEST...1437Z...RECON REPORT
SHOWS THE PRESSURE UP TO 971 MB.  SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES PUERTO RICO.  DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE INTENSITY OF GEORGES IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT
TO WHICH THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...
AND EXTREME EASTERN CUBA.
 
THE MOTION IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  SEVERAL SYNOPTIC FACTORS ARE
EXPECTED TO PLAY A ROLE IN THE FUTURE COURSE OF GEORGES...THE MID-
TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
BETWEEN 20N-30N...THE INFLUENCE OF 500 MB TROUGHS IN THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES ON THIS RIDGE...AND AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC
CYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER CUBA.  RIGHT NOW...THE RIDGE SEEMS STRONG
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWEST MOVEMENT FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3
DAYS.  THE UPPER CYCLONE...WHICH COULD TURN GEORGES MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST...HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD.  ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE APPEARS TO
WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE 3-DAY MODEL RUNS...IT IS STILL
NOT CLEAR WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THIS RIDGE
FROM MID-LATITUDE INFLUENCES TO EFFECT A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD AND BEYOND. 
 
PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/1500Z 17.7N  64.3W    95 KTS
12HR VT     22/0000Z 18.3N  66.6W   100 KTS
24HR VT     22/1200Z 19.0N  69.0W    90 KTS
36HR VT     23/0000Z 19.8N  71.5W    85 KTS
48HR VT     23/1200Z 20.5N  73.5W    85 KTS
72HR VT     24/1200Z 22.5N  76.5W    90 KTS
 
 
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