ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 1998 ON SATELLITE IMAGES...GEORGES IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. THERE IS NO EYE AND THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT VERY SYMMETRICALLY ARRANGED ABOUT THE CENTER. RECON SHOWS A HIGHER CENTRAL PRESSURE THAN EARLY THIS MORNING BUT RECENTLY REPORTED 129 KNOTS AT THE 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL...AND GEORGES IS STILL A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE. THERE ARE NO OBVIOUSLY UNFAVORABLE SIGNS IN THE ENVIRONMENT...SO IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THIS HURRICANE WILL RESTRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SOME WEAKENING COULD OCCUR IF GEORGES INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE LARGER ISLANDS SUCH AS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME...SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST NEAR 14 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS MOSTLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. ONE OF THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISMS IS A MID-TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN 20N-30N TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...KEEPING GEORGES ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE. ACCORDING TO THE 12Z NCEP GLOBAL MODEL RUN...THIS RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD LATER IN THE PERIOD. AS USUAL THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE 48- AND 72-HOURS POSITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. ON THE OTHER HAND...3 DAYS AND BEYOND...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME AMPLIFICATION OF A DEEP- LAYER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH NEAR AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST COAST WITH WESTERLIES SAGGING THROUGH 30N LATITUDE. THUS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A MORE NORTHWARD COURSE COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY SPECULATIVE. IT IS SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO SPEAK WITH ANY CONFIDENCE ABOUT A THREAT TO THE MAINLAND U.S. AT THIS TIME. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 16.5N 59.9W 115 KTS 12HR VT 21/0600Z 16.9N 62.1W 120 KTS 24HR VT 21/1800Z 17.7N 64.5W 120 KTS 36HR VT 22/0600Z 18.5N 67.0W 110 KTS 48HR VT 22/1800Z 19.2N 69.0W 110 KTS 72HR VT 23/1800Z 21.0N 73.0W 110 KTS NNNN