ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 1998 SINCE LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON THE MOTION HAS BEEN MOSTLY TOWARD 280 DEGREES...I.E. JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST. FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED A LITTLE MORE...TO NEAR 14 KNOTS. THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME RETROGRESSION TOWARD THE WEST IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. WITH THIS EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING FLOW...SOME FURTHER SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. NOT MUCH OF A NORTHWARD TURN IS LIKELY IN THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...SINCE MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING SHOULD BE STRONG OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE EXCEPT A BIT SLOWER. THIS IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE GFDL TRACK SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE NORTH AFTER THE ADDITION OF A LARGE AMOUNT OF DATA FROM A SYNOPTIC FLOW EXPERIMENT CONDUCTED YESTERDAY EVENING WITH THREE NOAA AIRCRAFT. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER A MORE NORTHWARD TREND WILL MATERIALIZE IN THE LONGER-RANGE...BEYOND 3 DAYS...TRACK OF THIS HURRICANE. AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE/TROUGH THAT WAS IN THE VICINITY OF HISPANIOLA YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AROUND 5 DEGREES. IT IS NOT CLEAR WHAT ROLE THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY...BUT IF IT CUTS OFF INTO A SMALLER-SCALE CYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS COULD LESSEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK FOR GEORGES. THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS DISTINCT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT QUITE AS SYMMETRICAL AROUND THE CENTER AS IT WAS EARLIER. NONETHELESS...THE HURRICANE REMAINS QUITE FORMIDABLE AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS STILL AROUND 130 KNOTS. ASIDE FROM FLUCTUATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH MECHANISMS SUCH AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL GEORGES INTERACTS WITH THE LARGER ISLANDS. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 16.3N 58.5W 130 KTS 12HR VT 21/0000Z 16.8N 60.7W 130 KTS 24HR VT 21/1200Z 17.5N 63.5W 130 KTS 36HR VT 22/0000Z 18.3N 66.0W 120 KTS 48HR VT 22/1200Z 19.0N 68.0W 120 KTS 72HR VT 23/1200Z 20.5N 72.0W 110 KTS NNNN