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HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 1998
 
A NEW RECON FIX AT 08Z GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/15
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.  THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL INITIALIZES A TROUGH
BETWEEN BARBADOS AND THE HURRICANE.  THIS RESULTS IN THE AVIATION
MODEL TURNING THE HURRICANE DUE NORTHWARD.  THE INITIALIZATION IS
PROBABLY INCORRECT IN THAT THE NORTH-NORTHEAST 500 MB WIND AT
BARBADOS IS PROBABLY PART OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE HURRICANE RATHER
THAN A SEPARATE TROUGH.
 
THE UKMET AND NOGAPS BOTH SHOW A TRACK NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
THE GFDL MODEL HAS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY NORTH OF ITS PREVIOUS RUN
AND NOW SHOWS A 72-HOUR POSITION JUST NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVELY SHIFTED
ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH AT 72 HOURS AND SMALLER DISTANCES AT THE
SHORTER FORECAST PERIODS...AND IS ABOUT HALF-WAY BETWEEN THE GFDL
MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  
 
THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
WAS 939 MB AND THE HIGHEST WIND SO FAR WAS 132 KNOTS NEAR THE
SURFACE FROM A GPS DROP IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND 146 KNOTS AT
FLIGHT LEVEL IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY CALLING FOR LITTLE CHANGE
EXCEPT SLIGHT WEAKENING AT 72 HOURS.
 
LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0900Z 16.1N  57.1W   130 KTS
12HR VT     20/1800Z 16.6N  59.3W   130 KTS
24HR VT     21/0600Z 17.2N  62.2W   130 KTS
36HR VT     21/1800Z 17.9N  65.2W   130 KTS
48HR VT     22/0600Z 18.5N  68.0W   130 KTS
72HR VT     23/0600Z 20.0N  73.0W   120 KTS
 
 
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