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HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 1998
 
THE PRESSURE WAS DROPPING RAPIDLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAD TO LEAVE BECAUSE OF MECHANICAL
PROBLEMS.  HOWEVER...A NOAA PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED 939 MB SO IT
APPEARS THAT THE RAPID DEEPENING MAY HAVE CEASED FOR NOW.  ANOTHER
AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED INTO GEORGES AROUND 0600Z.  CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY COLD
CONVECTIVE TOPS.  TAFB...SAB...AND KGWC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM
0000Z WERE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A T6.5...127 KNOTS.  THE MOST
RECENT OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER. ONE OF THE GPS
DROPWINDSONDES ACTUALLY REPORTED 166 KNOTS AT LOW LEVELS IN THE
EYEWALL...BUT ONE MUST REMEMBER THAT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LESS.  THE ESTIMATE OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS IS NOW 130
KNOTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT GEORGES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A SOLID CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  THE WEAKENING
INDICATED NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS DUE TO INVOLVEMENT
WITH HISPANIOLA.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS STILL SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST...NEAR 16 KNOTS. 
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER HAITI IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD AND NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR.  THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF GEORGES WILL DETERMINE THE FUTURE TRACK.  OUR TRACK
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND LBAR.  THE UKMET AND NAVY NOGAPS ARE TO
THE RIGHT...WHILE THE MID AND DEEP LAYER BAMS AS WELL AS NHC98 ARE
TO THE LEFT.  THE NOAA JET AND THE TWO NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT ARE FLYING
IN THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND GEORGES TO HELP INITIALIZE THE 0000Z MODEL
RUNS.
 
ONE BIG CHANGE SINCE THE ADDITION OF RECONNAISSANCE DATA HAS BEEN IN
THE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WIND RADII HAVE BEEN INCREASED CONSIDERABLY BASED ON THE MOST RECENT
ANALYSIS BY THE HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION WHICH INCORPORATES DATA
FROM AIRCRAFT...SATELLITE...AND SHIPS.  BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE IN
SIZE...MARTINIQUE AND ST LUCIA HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. 

MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0300Z 15.8N  55.8W   130 KTS
12HR VT     20/1200Z 16.2N  58.3W   130 KTS
24HR VT     21/0000Z 16.8N  61.6W   130 KTS
36HR VT     21/1200Z 17.4N  65.0W   130 KTS
48HR VT     22/0000Z 17.8N  68.0W   130 KTS
72HR VT     23/0000Z 18.5N  73.5W   120 KTS
 
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