ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 1998

RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WINDS OF 146 KNOTS NEAR
IN THE EYEWALL. A DROP IN THE EYEWALL JUST MEASURED 119 KNOTS WHICH
IS AN AVERAGE OVER THE LOWEST 2000 FEET OR SO. THEREFORE...INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 125 KNOTS. THIS MATCHES WITH THE OBJECTIVE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS WHICH HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 6.0 AND 6.5. 
SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BUT INTENSITY MAY FLUCTUATE
AS THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE ISLANDS LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.. 

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING 290/17 KNOTS. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE
A 500MB RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WHICH IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST OR STRENGTHEN.  THIS RIDGE COULD FORCE THE
HURRICANE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AS INDICATED BY LBAR...BAMD AND
THE RELIABLE GFDL. HOWEVER..SINCE NOGPAS AND THE UKMET MODELS ARE
CONSISTENTLY TAKING GEORGE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...AND THE
CURRENT INITIAL MOTION IS 290 DEGREES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK. THIS MOTION BRINGS THE HURRICANE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS AND NEAR PUERTO RICO WITHIN 48 HOUR OR SO. 
 
A KEY PLAYER COULD BE AN UPPER LOW OVER HISPANIOLA. MODELS WEAKEN
THE LOW RAPIDLY OR MOVE IT SOUTHWESTWARD BUT THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
EITHER AT THIS TIME. IF THE LOW REMAINS...A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT
SHOULD RESULT.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/2100Z 15.7N  54.4W   125 KTS
12HR VT     20/0600Z 16.5N  57.0W   125 KTS
24HR VT     20/1800Z 17.0N  60.3W   130 KTS
36HR VT     21/0600Z 17.5N  63.5W   130 KTS
48HR VT     21/1800Z 18.0N  66.5W   130 KTS
72HR VT     22/1800Z 18.5N  72.5W   130 KTS
 
 
NNNN