ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 1998 DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 6.0...WHICH IS EQUIVALENT TO 115 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 110 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE EYE OF GEORGE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GIVE US A MEASUREMENT OF THE MINIMUM PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WINDS. THE HURRICANE HAS AN EXCELLENT EYE PRESENTATION AND WELL DEFINED BANDING FEATURES. THE OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR AND THERE ARE NO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE... ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. INITIAL MOTION IS 280/16. THERE IS A WELL DEFINED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. SO THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THE SAME GENERAL HEADING THROUGH 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE DIVERGENT. SOME GOOD MODELS LIKE NOGAPS AND UKMET MOVE THE HURRICANE ON A MORE WEST- NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AND THE REST SHOW A STRAIT WESTWARD MOTION AND EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF THE GFDL AND LBAR WHICH ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK FORECAST ENSEMBLE. A KEY PLAYER COULD BE AN UPPER LOW OVER HISPANIOLA. MODELS WEAKEN THE LOW RAPIDLY OR MOVE IT SOUTHWESTWARD BUT THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF EITHER AT THIS TIME. IF THE LOW REMAINS...A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT SHOULD RESULT. AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 15.0N 52.8W 110 KTS 12HR VT 20/0000Z 15.4N 55.3W 115 KTS 24HR VT 20/1200Z 15.7N 58.4W 120 KTS 36HR VT 21/0000Z 16.0N 61.5W 120 KTS 48HR VT 21/1200Z 16.5N 65.0W 120 KTS 72HR VT 22/1200Z 17.0N 71.0W 120 KTS NNNN