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HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 1998

DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE
INDICATING THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 90 KNOTS. THE EYE AS WELL AS
BANDING FEATURES HAVE PERSISTED ALL DAY AND THERE ARE A NO
WESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND
GEORGES IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE AS SUGGESTED BY SHIPS INTENSITY
FORECAST MODEL.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 275/19. A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST.  THEREFORE...A
CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE GFDL AND LBAR ALTHOUGH NOGAPS...AVN UKMET AND HPC ARE SHOWING A
MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON
THE OTHER HAND OTHER MODELS SUGGEST TRACKS SOUTH OF DUE WEST. IN
OTHER WORDS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL
FORECAST TRACK ENSEMBLE AT THIS TIME. 

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/2100Z 13.7N  48.5W    90 KTS
12HR VT     19/0600Z 14.0N  51.4W    95 KTS
24HR VT     19/1800Z 14.5N  55.3W   100 KTS
36HR VT     20/0600Z 15.0N  59.1W   110 KTS
48HR VT     20/1800Z 15.5N  62.5W   120 KTS
72HR VT     21/1800Z 16.0N  67.5W   120 KTS
 
 
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