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HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 1998

COR TO ADJUST INITIAL INTENSITY IN FIRST PARAGRAPH

GEORGES CONTINUES TO HAVE AN EYE AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW...ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS EARLIER.  LATEST OBJECTIVE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE NEAR 5.0 SO WINDS ARE 85 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. 
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND GEORGES IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE AS
SUGGESTED BY SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL. 

INITIAL MOTION IS 275/18. A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. THEREFORE...A
CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE GFDL...LBAR...A9UK AND CLIPER.  HOWEVER...NOGAPS...MRF AND UKMET
ARE SHOWING A MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS MAY REQUIRE A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE
TRACK LATER ON.

AVILA 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/1500Z 13.1N  46.6W    85 KTS
12HR VT     19/0000Z 13.4N  49.3W    90 KTS
24HR VT     19/1200Z 13.7N  52.9W   100 KTS
36HR VT     20/0000Z 14.3N  56.6W   110 KTS
48HR VT     20/1200Z 15.0N  60.0W   120 KTS
72HR VT     21/1200Z 16.0N  66.0W   120 KTS
 
 
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