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HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 1998
 
SATELLITE DERIVED T-NUMBERS ARE 4.5 TO 5.0 AND AN EYE CAN BE
DETECTED IN THE INFRARED. THUS...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80
KTS.  THE SYSTEM HAS ALL OF THE CLASSICAL FEATURES TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE...GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW...WARM SSTS AND INCREASING
ALONG THE TRACK...INFLOW FROM THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHICH IS ALSO
CREATING A BASIC CURRENT THAT IS MOVING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST AT
ABOUT 20 KTS.  INTENSITY CHANGES ARE SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
AND ARE SUPPORTED BY SHIPS GUIDANCE.   
 
IN THIS REGIME A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE...AND
THIS IS SHOWN BY THE GUIDANCE AND OFFICIAL FORECAST.  ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME DISPERSION OF MODEL TRACKS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...
MOST SHOW A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/0900Z 12.9N  45.2W    80 KTS
12HR VT     18/1800Z 13.1N  48.2W    90 KTS
24HR VT     19/0600Z 13.8N  52.3W   100 KTS
36HR VT     19/1800Z 14.4N  56.3W   110 KTS
48HR VT     20/0600Z 15.1N  60.4W   120 KTS
72HR VT     21/0600Z 16.4N  68.5W   120 KTS
 
 
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