ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 17 1998 A 2239Z SSM/I IMAGE ON THE NRL HOMEPAGE CLEARLY SHOWS AN EYE IN GEORGES. ANCHORING ON THAT POSITION...AND ASSUMING NO NAVIGATION PROBLEMS...GIVES AN INITIAL MOVEMENT OF 275 TO 280 DEGREES AT ABOUT 18 KT. THE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 70 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH AN AVERAGE OF TAFB AND SAB ANALYSES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED TO THE NNE...AND EXTENDING TO JUST NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THE 18Z AVN MAINTAINS A RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 25N THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THIS REGIME A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE...AND THIS IS SHOWN BY THE GUIDANCE AND OFFICIAL FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DISPERSION OF MODEL TRACKS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD... MOST SHOW A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. STRENGTHENING SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS SHOWN. RAPPAPORT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 12.6N 43.1W 70 KTS 12HR VT 18/1200Z 12.8N 45.8W 80 KTS 24HR VT 19/0000Z 13.2N 49.6W 85 KTS 36HR VT 19/1200Z 13.9N 53.2W 90 KTS 48HR VT 20/0000Z 14.3N 56.2W 95 KTS 72HR VT 21/0000Z 15.5N 62.0W 100 KTS NNNN