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TROPICAL STORM GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 16 1998
 
THE IR IMAGES THIS EVENING SHOW TWO PERSISTENT CLUSTERS OF STRONG
CONVECTION...OCCASIONALLY WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN
-80C.  THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN THE CLUSTERS.
OUTFLOW ON THE WEST SIDE REMAINS PARTICULARLY WELL-DEVELOPED AND...
WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS NOW AT 3.0...THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45
KT.
 
THE MOTION REMAINS JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 17 KT...TO THE
SOUTH OF A HIGH DETECTED IN WV IMAGERY.  THE LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FARTHER TO THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE BYPASSING GEORGES WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TRACK OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND.  AS INDICATED BY THE
GFDL AND AVN OUTPUT FROM 18Z AND THE NOGAPS FROM 12Z...ONLY A SLOW
ROTATION OF THE HEADING FROM WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE TRACK GIVEN IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM 6 HOURS AGO.
 
THE GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY FORECASTS BRING GEORGES TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN ABOUT 36 HOURS WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. 
THE NHC FORECAST IMPLIES A LITTLE SLOWER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/0300Z 11.0N  35.8W    45 KTS
12HR VT     17/1200Z 11.3N  38.3W    50 KTS
24HR VT     18/0000Z 11.6N  41.4W    55 KTS
36HR VT     18/1200Z 12.1N  44.7W    60 KTS
48HR VT     19/0000Z 12.8N  47.7W    65 KTS
72HR VT     20/0000Z 14.5N  53.5W    75 KTS
 
 
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