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TROPICAL STORM GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 16 1998

THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND IT HAS BEEN CHANGING FROM
CDO TO BANDING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE OUTFLOW IS WELL
DEFINED ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE SUGGESTING THAT THERE ARE NO
WESTERLIES AHEAD.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB
REMAIN 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE BUT DATA T IS HIGHER. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 40 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
FORECAST 200 MB EASTERLIES OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AND BOTH SHIPS AND
GFDL BRING THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STATUS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING AND MAKES GEORGES A 70-KNOT HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 275/17. THERE IS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ANCHORED
TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. THEREFORE...A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS
FORECAST WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS.
THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH TRACK MODELS PRIMARILY THE GDFL...LBAR AND
CLIMATOLOGY.  IN FACT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOW VERSION OF
LBAR. IT APPEARS THAT BAM MODELS ARE INFLUENCED BY THE UNREALISTIC
CIRCULATION WHICH THE AVN MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT AHEAD OF
GEORGES.  

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/2100Z 10.7N  34.0W    40 KTS
12HR VT     17/0600Z 10.9N  36.6W    45 KTS
24HR VT     17/1800Z 11.3N  39.6W    50 KTS
36HR VT     18/0600Z 11.8N  42.8W    55 KTS
48HR VT     18/1800Z 12.0N  46.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     19/1800Z 13.5N  51.0W    70 KTS
 
 
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