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TROPICAL STORM GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 16 1998

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED.  THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE ENVELOPE AND THE
CENTER APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME BANDING
FEATURES.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE BOTH
2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND THE DATA-T FROM THE AIR FORCE GLOBAL
WEATHER CENTER IS 3.0. THIS IS THE BASIS FOR UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO
A TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST
200 MB EASTERLIES OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AND BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL
BRING THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STATUS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING AND MAKES GEORGES A 70-KNOT HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 275/17. THERE IS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ANCHORED
TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. THEREFORE...A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS
FORECAST WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS.
THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH TRACK MODELS PRIMARILY THE GDFL...LBAR AND
CLIMATOLOGY. 

ONE SHOULD MENTION THAT THE AVN DEVELOPS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WELL
AHEAD OF GEORGES AND THIS MODEL FEATURE ERODES THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CURRENTLY STEERING GEORGES. THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REALISTIC...AND THE RIDGE COULD REMAIN STRONG.
IF SO...GEORGES SHOULD CONTINUE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. 

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/1500Z 10.5N  32.4W    35 KTS
12HR VT     17/0000Z 10.7N  34.9W    40 KTS
24HR VT     17/1200Z 11.2N  38.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     18/0000Z 11.5N  41.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     18/1200Z 12.2N  44.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     19/1200Z 13.5N  50.0W    70 KTS
 
 
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