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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 1998
...CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO 3 
NO METEOSAT IMAGERY RECEIVED FROM 23Z THROUGH DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
FORECAST...BUT AVAILABLE CENTER FIXES WERE A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF
THE EXPECTED POSITION AND IMPLY A SOMEWHAT SLOWER MOTION THAN
EXPECTATIONS BASED ON THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS AND SHORT-TERM FORECAST.

AS A COMPROMISE...THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN EASED NORTHWARD A
BIT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 275/15 KT.  THE
SYSTEM RETAINS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MORE DISTANT TO THE NW.  THE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM 6 HOURS AGO.  A 01Z
PICTURE RECEIVED JUST BEFORE RELEASE OF THIS ADVISORY SHOWS A MORE
DEVELOPED AND CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN.
 
THE TRACK MODELS ARE FAIRLY CLOSELY CLUSTERED...GENERALLY INDICATING
A WESTWARD...BECOMING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. 
THE NHC FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CLUSTER AND A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK IN THE FIRST ADVISORY.  THIS TRACK
ASSUMES THAT A NARROWING E-W RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL HOLD...EVEN
WITH THE LARGE TROUGH THAT THE 18Z AVN AND 12Z NOGAPS SHOW
GENERATING WESTERLIES AT 500 MB ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 25-30N OVER MUCH
OF THE ATLANTIC BY 72 HOURS. 
 
THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE IN THEIR
FORECAST INTENSIFICATION THAN PREVIOUSLY. 
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0300Z 10.1N  28.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     16/1200Z 10.2N  30.7W    35 KTS
24HR VT     17/0000Z 10.6N  33.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     17/1200Z 11.0N  36.3W    45 KTS
48HR VT     18/0000Z 11.6N  39.1W    55 KTS
72HR VT     19/0000Z 13.0N  44.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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