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TROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 1998
 
RADAR AND RECON DATA SHOWED THE CENTER OF FRANCES MAKING LANDFALL
BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND PORT OCONNOR AROUND 06Z.  THE CENTER HAS
PROGRESSED INLAND DURING THE FOLLOWING FEW HOURS ON A HEADING OF
ABOUT 315 DEGREES AT AROUND 12 KT.  WHILE THE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER
SHOULD ABATE...THE OFFSHORE CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING RATHER
SLOWLY.
 
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FROM LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND TRACK PREDICTION
SCHEMES GENERALLY SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THIS MOTION FOR THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AS DOES THE
NHC FORECAST.  THEREAFTER...THERE IS DIVERGENCE WITH SOME MODELS
TAKING THE REMNANTS TOWARD THE NORTH AND OTHERS SUGGESTING A DUE
WESTWARD HEADING.  ON THIS FORECAST CYCLE...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE SYSTEM STALLING...BUT THE DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED COULD
NEVERTHELESS INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND.
 
FLOODING FROM STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE
DAY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND DECREASE MORE QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST.  DETAILS ARE CONTAINED IN STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/0900Z 28.5N  97.5W    40 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     11/1800Z 29.4N  98.7W    30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     12/0600Z 30.0N 100.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     12/1800Z 30.5N 101.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     13/0600Z 31.0N 102.0W    20 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     14/0600Z...INLAND...DISSIPATING
 
 
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