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TROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 10 1998
 
FRANCES LOOKS MORE LIKE A TROPICAL STORM ON SATELLITE TONIGHT THAN
ANY OTHER TIME BEFORE.  THERE IS A CONCENTRATED AREA OF STRONG
SQUALLS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER WHERE DOPPLER WINDS
ALOFT HAVE REACH 70 KNOTS. RECON JUST FOUND A BROAD 995 MB PRESSURE
CENTER AND 59-KNOT WINDS.

MOST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER HAS ALREADY REACHED THE MID TO UPPER
TEXAS COAST AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS AND GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND.  THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION BUT MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION IS
ALREADY OVER LAND.  THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO.
 
FRANCES IS STILL MEANDERING BUT THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 5 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE 500 MB
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS SUGGESTED
BY MOST OF THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE SPEED VARIES AMONG THE MODELS.
 
SEVERE FLOODING FROM STORM SURGE AND RAIN IS OCCURRING ALONG THE MID
TO UPPER TEXAS COAST. DETAILS ARE INCLUDED IN STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. ONCE FRANCES MAKES
LANDFALL...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED BUT VERY HEAVY RAINS AND
FLOODING ARE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF TEXAS DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/0300Z 27.6N  95.9W    55 KTS
12HR VT     11/1200Z 28.5N  96.6W    60 KTS
24HR VT     12/0000Z 29.3N  97.2W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     12/1200Z 30.0N  98.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     13/0000Z 30.5N  99.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     14/0000Z 31.0N 100.0W    20 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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