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TROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 10 1998
 
TRACKING OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN A REAL CHALLENGE.  THE
CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO REFORM WITHIN A BROADER SCALE CIRCULATION
ENVELOPE...AND ALTHOUGH LATEST CENTER FIXES ARE MORE TO THE NORTH
THIS IS NOT BELIEVED TO REPRESENT A SIGNIFICANTLY MORE NORTHWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION.  IN FACT...THE OVERALL AREA OF PRECIPITATION ON
RADAR APPEARS TO BE SPREADING GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE STILL NOT VERY WELL DEFINED...BUT THE NCEP
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW TO THE
SOUTH OF A LARGE 500 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SO A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS IS FORECAST.
 
OVERALL THE CYCLONE LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER-ORGANIZED THAN IT DID 24
HOURS AGO.  FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH OF
A CONCENTRATION OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE. 
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MORE HEAVY SHOWERS FORMING NEAR THE
ESTIMATED CENTER AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES... STRENGTHENING COULD
OCCUR SINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS ANTICYCLONIC AND THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT STRONG.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/1500Z 25.5N  95.5W    40 KTS
12HR VT     11/0000Z 25.7N  95.9W    45 KTS
24HR VT     11/1200Z 25.9N  96.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     12/0000Z 26.0N  97.2W    55 KTS
48HR VT     12/1200Z 26.2N  98.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     13/1200Z 26.5N 100.0W    20 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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