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TROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 10 1998
 
THE LAST OF THE FOUR FIXES FROM THE MOST RECENT RECONNAISSANCE
FLIGHT CAME AT ABOUT 05Z AND SHOWED THE CENTER CONTINUING TO JUMP
AROUND A LITTLE.  DATA AVAILABLE SUBSEQUENTLY SUGGESTS LITTLE NET
MOTION AND NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY...WITH 40 KT REMAINING THE
ESTIMATE OF THE SUSTAINED WIND.
 
FRANCES REMAINS WITHIN A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT HAS BEEN
LOCKED IN PLACE AS PART OF A COMPLEX OMEGA/REX BLOCK TYPE PATTERN
CENTERED OVER THE CONTINENT...AND WHICH ALSO CONTAINS JAVIER IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC.  THE 00Z AVN AND NOGAPS INDICATE A SLIGHT WESTWARD
REALIGNMENT OF THE DOMINANT HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WHICH COULD ALLOW THIS BROAD LOW AND FRANCES TO SHIFT A
LITTLE WESTWARD AS WELL.  THIS COULD OCCUR IF THE STRONG DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DOES NOT ELONGATE SOUTHWESTWARD FAR
ENOUGH TO PULL FRANCES TOWARD THE NE.  THE TRACK MODELS RUN FROM
THIS LARGE-SCALE SETTING GENERALLY SHOW A SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE
WNW...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/0900Z 23.5N  95.0W    40 KTS
12HR VT     10/1800Z 23.9N  95.6W    45 KTS
24HR VT     11/0600Z 24.3N  96.3W    50 KTS
36HR VT     11/1800Z 24.8N  97.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     12/0600Z 25.4N  97.9W    30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     13/0600Z 26.5N  99.5W    20 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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