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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 09 1998
 
THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLASSICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARANCE.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLE
MULTIPLE CENTERS...INCLUDING IN OUR TD.  SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION...WITH OTHER
CLUSTERS SCATTERED AROUND THE WESTERN GULF.  A BROKEN CANOPY OF HIGH
CLOUDS IS MAKING DIFFICULT THE ANALYSIS OF A SURFACE CENTER FROM
SATELLITE...BUT CURRENT ESTIMATE WITH HELP FROM BROWNSVILLE RADAR
DATA IS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS STILL NEARLY STATIONARY..OR DRIFTING
TOWARD THE W TO WNW...AND UNCHANGED IN STRENGTH FROM 6 HOURS AGO.
 
THE AVN FORECASTS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NW WILL
DRIFT TOWARD THE EAST.  THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO CARRY THE TD TOWARD THE TEXAS OR NE MEXICO COAST...WITH
TRACK GUIDANCE VARYING BETWEEN A NORTHWEST HEADING BY THE UKMET AND
A SOUTHWEST HEADING BY THE GFDL.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO 6
HOURS AGO.  IF A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK BEGINS TO OCCUR...THEN WATCHES
OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF MEXICO/S NORTHEAST
COAST.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/0900Z 25.6N  94.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     09/1800Z 25.7N  95.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     10/0600Z 26.2N  96.6W    40 KTS
36HR VT     10/1800Z 26.5N  97.6W    35 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     11/0600Z 26.8N  98.7W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     12/0600Z 27.0N 100.0W    20 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING
 
 
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