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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 08 1998
 
THE RECON FOUND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 999 MB BUT NOT A WELL DEFINED
CENTER.  HOWEVER..SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE IS A
LARGE BROAD CIRCULATION AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THERE IS
ENOUGH DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.  THE DEPRESSION IS IN FORMATIVE
STAGES AND A CONSISTENT CENTER WILL LIKELY BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
TRACK.  BECAUSE MOST OF THE MODELS ARE RELAXING THE SHEAR...SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.
 
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS
THE RIGDE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  HOWEVER...THE
FORECAST TRACK BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHICH IN FACT WE
ARE ALSO MONITORING.
 
AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/2100Z 25.6N  94.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     09/0600Z 26.0N  95.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     09/1800Z 26.7N  97.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     10/0600Z 27.0N  98.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     10/1800Z 27.5N  99.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     11/1800Z 27.5N 100.5W    20 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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