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HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 02 1998
 
EARL CONTINUES TO HAVE A NON-CLASSICAL CLOUD PATTERN...TO SAY THE
LEAST.  ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT OVERALL
WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS AND LESS ORGANIZATION...WHICH SUGGESTS
WEAKENING.  FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND DROPWINDSONDE DATA FROM THE AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT EARL HAS DROPPED BACK TO
CATEGORY ONE INTENSITY.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
STRONG WINDS EXTEND WELL OUT FROM THE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A SERIOUS STORM SURGE
PROBLEM IN THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA.
 
THE RECON DATA SHOWS THAT THE CENTER REMAINS BROAD AND DIFFUSE...AND
FIXES FROM WSR-88D RADAR ARE RATHER POOR.  THIS CONTINUES TO MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE INITIAL MOTION.  THE CURRENT ESTIMATE IS
060/09.  TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY USEFUL FOR
PREDICTING EARL...SO EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT MOVEMENT IS A
PRIMARY FORECAST TOOL IN THIS CASE.  BASED ON A SLIGHTLY MORE
EASTWARD INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THE FORECAST BASICALLY
CONTINUES AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE
SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/0300Z 29.5N  86.3W    70 KTS
12HR VT     03/1200Z 30.3N  85.0W    60 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     04/0000Z 31.4N  83.2W    40 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     04/1200Z 32.5N  81.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     05/0000Z 34.0N  79.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     06/0000Z 37.0N  75.0W    25 KTS
 
 
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