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HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 02 1998
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IS NOT THE TYPICAL
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANES. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UNDER STRONG SHEAR
BUT IT HAS BEEN ABLE TO INTENSIFY. THE WIND FIELD IS HIGHLY
ASYMMETRIC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EMBEDDED WITHIN A FEEDER BAND
WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  AN AIR FORCE PLANE RECENTLY
MEASURED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 104 KNOTS AND JUST REPORTED...AT
2028Z...A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 986 MB BUT NO EYE OR WALL CLOUD
FORMING.
 
THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN ROTATING AROUND A MUCH LARGER
CIRCULATION MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE THE OVERALL INITIAL
MOTION. IT APPEARS THAT EARL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
ABOUT 8 KNOTS BUT THIS ALSO COULD ANOTHER EASTWARD SHIFT OR
REFORMATION.  MODELS ARE SUGGESTING TRACKS TOWARD ALL DIRECTIONS.
THE GFDL CHANGED ITS TUNE AND NOW HAS A 72-HOUR POSITION NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA. 

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH PERSISTENCE AND CONTINUES WITH A
GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST OPTION AT
THIS TIME.  ON THIS TRACK THE DIFFUSE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.  

DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...WATCHES AND WARNINGS
REMAIN UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/2100Z 29.2N  87.4W    85 KTS
12HR VT     03/0600Z 30.0N  86.0W    90 KTS
24HR VT     03/1800Z 31.5N  84.5W    50 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     04/0600Z 32.5N  83.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     04/1800Z 34.0N  81.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     05/1800Z 35.0N  80.0W    20 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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