ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 1998 AIR FORCE RECON SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER HAS AGAIN REFORMED NEARER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...PART OF THIS MAY REPRESENT REAL MOTION. CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/9...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. BECAUSE OF THE REVISED CENTER POSITION THE FORECAST TRACK NEEDS TO BE SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERSE. SOME OF THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE EARL GETTING CAUGHT UP INTO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID- TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...AND LEAVE IT MEANDERING NEAR THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. A RATHER EXTENSIVE SAMPLING OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH GPS DROPWINDSONDES BY THE G-4 JET SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THESE DATA ALSO SHOW...HOWEVER..THAT EARL DOES NOT HAVE MUCH OF A SIGNATURE AT THAT LEVEL...SUGGESTING A RATHER SHALLOW SYSTEM THAT MAY NOT RESPOND TO DEEPER-LAYER STEERING. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION...EARL DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES. IN FACT...IT DOES NOT EVEN LOOK LIKE A TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME. THE STORM REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WESTERLY SHEAR...AND THIS MAY PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL ACKNOWLEDGES THE CHANCE THAT EARL COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING THE COAST. IN ANY EVENT THERE IS A FAIRLY LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF STRONG WINDS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA EAST OF PASCAGOULA TO DESTIN. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 27.3N 91.1W 50 KTS 12HR VT 02/1200Z 28.6N 90.3W 65 KTS 24HR VT 03/0000Z 29.8N 89.8W 60 KTS...INLAND 36HR VT 03/1200Z 30.5N 89.5W 40 KTS...INLAND 48HR VT 04/0000Z 31.0N 89.5W 30 KTS...INLAND 72HR VT 05/0000Z 32.5N 89.5W 25 KTS...INLAND NNNN