ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 1998

RECON FIXES AND SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER HAS
REFORMED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION.  THIS MAKES THE
INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  BEST ESTIMATE IS
020/10.  THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST IN ABOUT
24 HOURS OR LESS AND SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS EARL TO
HURRICANE STATUS IN 24 HOURS...HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. 

SOME TRACK MODELS HAVE BEEN CHANGING THEIR TUNE...PRIMARILY THE
GFDL...WHICH IS MOVING EARL ON A MORE NORTH AND NORTH NORTHEASTERLY
TRACK AND HAS THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR LAND BY 48
HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL BUT SOMEWHAT
FASTER AS SUGGESTED BY OTHER GUIDANCE AND BRINGS THE CENTER NEAR THE
LOUISIANA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.   

EARL CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT SHEARED BUT THERE IS ENOUGH RIDGING
ALOFT TO ALLOW STRENGTHENING.  BOTH GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS INTENSIFY
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. 
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/2100Z 27.0N  92.3W    50 KTS
12HR VT     02/0600Z 28.8N  91.8W    60 KTS
24HR VT     02/1800Z 29.5N  91.5W    70 KTS
36HR VT     03/0600Z 30.5N  91.2W    40 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     03/1800Z 32.0N  90.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     04/1800Z 34.0N  89.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
 
 
NNNN