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TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 01 1998
 
EARL IS A DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT IT IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND
AN ELONGATED CENTER  OF 999 MB AND THE WIND FIELD IS STILL VERY
ASYMMETRIC. MOST OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE WITHIN A BAND TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WINDS OF 61 KNOTS WERE
RECENTLY REPORTED. THERE IS SOME SHEARING OVER THE SYSTEM BUT IT IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE AND INDEED SOME UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STORM . SHIPS
INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL INTENSIFY EARL AND THE GFDL SUGGESTS AN
EXPLOSIVE INTENSIFICATION.   THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR STRENGTHENING.
 
EARL HAS MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR MORE LIKELY IT HAS REFORMED A
LITTLE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS MEANS
THE WATCHES OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. DUE
TO THE ONGOING REFORMATION...BOTH INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND ADJUSTMENTS MAYBE NECESSARY.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR A SLOW GENERAL NORTHWARD
MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO CHANGE AND THE GFDL...MRF...AND UK ARE TENDING TO THE WEST OF
PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BUILDING OF A MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.
 
WE EMPHASIZE THAT ALL INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/1500Z 25.4N  92.7W    50 KTS
12HR VT     02/0000Z 25.7N  92.5W    60 KTS
24HR VT     02/1200Z 26.5N  92.5W    65 KTS
36HR VT     03/0000Z 27.3N  92.5W    70 KTS
48HR VT     03/1200Z 28.3N  92.5W    75 KTS
72HR VT     04/1200Z 29.5N  92.5W    80 KTS
 
 
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