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TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON AUG 31 1998
 
THE MOST RECENT DATA RECEIVED FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT EARL IS STILL IN ITS
FORMATIVE STAGES.  THE CENTER FIXES HAVE BEEN JUMPING AROUND AND
ARE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION.  ON THIS BASIS
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NEARLY STATIONARY.  EARL IS EXPECTED
TO RESUME A SLOW NORTHERLY MOTION TUESDAY. 
 
THE LATEST VORTEX MESSAGE FROM THE RECON AIRCRAFT SHOWS THAT THE
PRESSURE REMAINS STEADY AT 1002 MB WITH ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF
35 KNOTS.  ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35
KNOTS.  THE SYSTEM HAS A RATHER LARGE STORM ENVELOPE AS SEEN IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE OUTFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE INTENSITY TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY IS RETAINED WHICH BRINGS EARL TO HURRICANE STATUS BY 48
HOURS.

THE SYNOPTIC REASONING BEHIND THE TRACK FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A NORTH-NORTHEAST THEN NORTHEAST HEADING
..ALONG WITH AN INCREASE FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 24 HOURS...IN RESPONSE
TO A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE MAJORITY OF THE 00Z
TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ADVERTISE THIS SCENARIO...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK.  IF FACT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS IN VERY CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
NAVY NOGAPS AND THE UKMET MODELS BOTH SHOW THE TROUGH BY-PASSING
EARL...LEAVING THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION ESTIMATES...A HURRICANE WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOMETIME TUESDAY.

GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/0300Z 22.3N  93.7W    35 KTS
12HR VT     01/1200Z 22.9N  93.8W    40 KTS
24HR VT     02/0000Z 24.5N  93.6W    45 KTS
36HR VT     02/1200Z 26.5N  92.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     03/0000Z 28.5N  90.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     04/0000Z 31.5N  85.0W    55 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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