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HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 02 1998
 
SATELLITE POSITION FIXES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INDICATE THAT
DANIELLE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD.  THE INITIAL 
MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 050/30 KNOTS.
 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DANIELLE STILL HAS SOME
SEMBLANCE OF AN EYE FEATURE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 
REDUCED TO 65 KNOTS...AND HELD THROUGH 12 HOURS.  THEREAFTER 
THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SST/S AND GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DANIELLE HEADS EASTWARD INTO THE OPEN
ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL BY 24
HOURS.
 
TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE DANIELLE NORTHEASTWARD
FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE EAST BY
36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS TERMINATED BY 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
BECOMES EXTRA-TROPICAL.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/0300Z 41.0N  58.4W    65 KTS
12HR VT     03/1200Z 44.2N  53.1W    65 KTS
24HR VT     04/0000Z 46.5N  43.3W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     04/1200Z 46.5N  34.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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