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HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 02 1998
 
SATELLITE FIXES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INDICATE THAT DANIELLE
CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
NOW 045/26 KNOTS.
 
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT DANIELLE HAS
MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS...IN FACT...AN EYE
WAS VISIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 70 KNOTS.  THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER 26C OR
WARMER WATER FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS RAPIDLY
DECREASING SSTS VALUES. SLOW BUT CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS
THE SYSTEM ADVANCES NORTHEAST THEN EASTWARD INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
 
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME AS BEFORE...THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE DANIELLE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE EAST THEREAFTER.  ALL OF THE
18Z TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE CLUSTERED NEAR THIS SOLUTION WITH
VARIATIONS IN SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/2100Z 38.8N  62.0W    70 KTS
12HR VT     03/0600Z 41.7N  58.5W    65 KTS
24HR VT     03/1800Z 44.5N  54.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     04/0600Z 46.0N  46.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     04/1800Z 47.0N  36.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     05/1800Z 47.0N  20.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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