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HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 01 1998
 
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS AND SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A
GREATER EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION THIS MORNING...TOWARD ABOUT
065/9 KT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE 06Z AVN STILL SHOWS THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND WESTERLIES SWEEPING DANIELLE GENERALLY TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST.   GIVEN THE CURRENT MOTION AND EXPANDED WIND RADII TO
THE SE...HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD OCCUR DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AT BERMUDA AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THAT ISLAND.
 
THE OFFICIAL TRACK LIES ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE AND
SHOWS ACCELERATION IN LINE WITH THE NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS.  THE AVN
OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME ELONGATED BY 36 TO 48
HOURS...INDICATIVE OF DANIELLE STARTING TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.
 
HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 968
MB..BUT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT INCREASING THE MAXIMUM
WINDS AT THIS TIME.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/1500Z 32.3N  71.6W    85 KTS
12HR VT     02/0000Z 33.2N  69.6W    90 KTS
24HR VT     02/1200Z 35.3N  65.6W    90 KTS
36HR VT     03/0000Z 38.8N  60.5W    90 KTS
48HR VT     03/1200Z 41.3N  54.9W    75 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     04/1200Z 45.5N  42.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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