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HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 1998

MOTION HAS SLOWED A LITTLE MORE AND NOW APPEARS TO BE
NORTHWESTWARD...305/8.  NO IMPORTANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT...IN
ACCORDANCE WITH ALL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE...IS EXPECTED.  A BROAD MID-
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE
TO RECURVE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT VERY ABUNDANT...BUT THE SYSTEM IS WELL-
ORGANIZED AND AN EYE IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE PICTURES.  LATEST RECON
PRESSURE IS 988 MB...ABOUT THE SAME AS 12 HOURS AGO. DANIELLE IS NOW
MOVING OVER THE PATH OF BONNIE...AND THE PASSAGE OF THE PREVIOUS
HURRICANE HAS LIKELY COOLED THE SST IN THE AREA.  THIS MAY BE
PREVENTING ANY STRENGTHENING AT THE MOMENT.  EVEN SO...DANIELLES
LACK OF STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT READILY
EXPLAINED.  SINCE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM BONNIES
WAKE AND OTHER FACTORS SEEM FAVORABLE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR SOME STRENGTHENING AS BEFORE.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/1500Z 27.1N  73.4W    65 KTS
12HR VT     31/0000Z 28.0N  74.2W    70 KTS
24HR VT     31/1200Z 29.1N  74.2W    75 KTS
36HR VT     01/0000Z 30.5N  73.7W    80 KTS
48HR VT     01/1200Z 32.5N  72.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     02/1200Z 35.5N  66.5W    85 KTS
 
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