ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 1998

SATELLITE AND RECON INDICATE THAT DANIELLE HAS NOT CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY.  THE PLANE REPORTED A CLOSED EYE WALL
OF 10 NMI DIAMETER AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 988 MB.  THERE
HAS BEEN NO REPORTS OF WINDS HIGHER THAN 60 TO 70 KNOTS AT THIS
TIME.  THE HURRICANE LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A
CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND TWO OUTFLOW CHANNELS. WE ARE
KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 80 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  IN SPITE OF
SUCH A GOOD ENVIRONMENT...DANIELLE HAS FAILED TO INTENSIFY AS
FORECAST.  HOWEVER...THE LITTLE WE KNOW ABOUT INTENSITY CHANGES
SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD STRENGTHEN.  SHIPS INTENSITY
FORECAST MODEL INSISTS ON BRINGING DANIELLE TO 100 KNOTS AND SO DOES
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12.  THE KEY PLAYER IS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CARRY DANIELLE NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 24
TO 36 HOURS AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. TRACK
MODELS CAPTURED THIS FEATURE AND ALL OF THEM...CONSISTENTLY TURN
DANIELLE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND AWAY FROM THE U.S.
COAST. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 

AVILA 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/1500Z 25.1N  70.1W    80 KTS
12HR VT     30/0000Z 25.9N  72.3W    80 KTS
24HR VT     30/1200Z 27.0N  74.0W    85 KTS
36HR VT     31/0000Z 29.0N  75.0W    90 KTS
48HR VT     31/1200Z 30.5N  74.5W    95 KTS
72HR VT     01/1200Z 34.5N  68.5W   100 KTS
 
 
NNNN