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HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 1998
 
DANIELLE STILL DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
BUT THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CONTINUE TO REPORT A VERY TIGHT
CENTER...WITH 87 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL.  THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH
OF HISPANIOLA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH DANIELLE AND
APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT FOR
STRENGTHENING.  OUR INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS
GUIDANCE...AND IS THE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/15.  THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF
A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AFTER HURRICANE BONNIE MOVES OUT.  MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN INDICATING THAT A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 36 HOURS OR SO.
HOWEVER...MANY OF THESE GUIDANCE MODELS USE THE AVIATION MODEL FOR
THE BACKGROUND FIELD AND THE AVIATION MODEL SEEMS CONTAMINATED BY A
BOGUS VORTEX NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WHICH MAY ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF
THIS NORTHWARD MOTION.  OUR CURRENT FORECAST TRACK STILL SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THAT THE UKMET MODEL IS TO THE RIGHT OF OUR TRACK
AND THE NAVY NOGAPS MODEL IS TO THE LEFT OF OUR TRACK.
 
MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0900Z 22.9N  63.9W    80 KTS
12HR VT     28/1800Z 23.5N  66.2W    85 KTS
24HR VT     29/0600Z 24.7N  68.8W    90 KTS
36HR VT     29/1800Z 26.0N  71.1W    95 KTS
48HR VT     30/0600Z 27.5N  73.0W   100 KTS
72HR VT     31/0600Z 32.0N  74.5W   100 KTS
 
 
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