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HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 27 1998

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO THE INITIAL MOTION OR TO THE TRACK
FORECAST.  THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF BONNIE.  AS BONNIE SLOWLY EXITS THE
SCENE...SOME RIDGING WILL PROBABLY BUILD BACK IN OVER THAT AREA. 
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE 18Z NCEP AVN MODEL RUN
SHOWS A RATHER LARGE 500 MB TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WHICH SHOULD CREATE A MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF STEERING.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFDL AND BAM GUIDANCE AS WELL.

AIR FORCE RECON FOUND A 992 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE AND A TIGHT WIND
CENTER THAT IS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLOUD
MASS.  DANIELLE IS A SMALL HURRICANE IN SIZE.  SHIP REPORTS INDICATE
THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII ARE NO MORE THAN 100 N MI.  
CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  DANIELLE
HAS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS VERTICAL SHEAR MAPS SHOW REASONABLY
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE NEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL
OUTPUT ALSO SHOWS LIGHT SHEAR.  STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED...SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES AND TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  DANIELLE
COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

PASCH 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0300Z 22.6N  62.4W    80 KTS
12HR VT     28/1200Z 23.3N  64.7W    85 KTS
24HR VT     29/0000Z 24.4N  67.7W    90 KTS
36HR VT     29/1200Z 26.0N  70.5W    95 KTS
48HR VT     30/0000Z 28.0N  72.5W   100 KTS
72HR VT     31/0000Z 32.0N  74.5W   100 KTS
 
 
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