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HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 27 1998
 
THE HIGHEST WIND FOUND BY RECON THUSFAR TODAY REMAINS AT 97 KNOTS
OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  ALL LATER RECON ESTIMATES IN OTHER
QUADRANTS HAVE BEEN LOWER...RANGING FROM 40 TO 60 KNOTS.  SATELLITE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS RANGE FROM 75 TO 90 KTS.  THUS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 80 KNOTS WITH SLOW INTENSIFICATION
FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE. 
THIS FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL. 

THERE IS A SERIOUS MISMATCH BETWEEN ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE AND
ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND SPEED.  RECONN REPORTS CONSIDERABLE TILT
BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL CENTER AND LOWER LEVEL CENTER SO THE
DROPSONDE IS PROBABLY MISSING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.  IF THE VERTICAL
SHEAR THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING REDUCES...A MORE INTENSE
AND SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM COULD RESULT. 

INITIAL MOTION IS 295/15.  DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS
GENERAL TRACK DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
STRONG ANTICYCLONE...LOCATED JUST EAST OF BERMUDA.  MODELS REMAIN IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THAT TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...
MOST OF THE MODELS GRADUALLY TURN DANIELLE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH...FOLLOWING THE TROUGH LEFT BY THE WAKE OF BONNIE.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD FOLLOWS THE GFDL AND LBAR
GUIDANCE.

GROSS

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/2100Z 22.1N  60.8W    80 KTS
12HR VT     28/0600Z 22.8N  63.1W    85 KTS
24HR VT     28/1800Z 24.0N  66.0W    90 KTS
36HR VT     29/0600Z 25.2N  68.7W    95 KTS
48HR VT     29/1800Z 26.7N  71.2W   100 KTS
72HR VT     30/1800Z 31.0N  74.2W   105 KTS
 
 
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