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HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 27 1998
 
RECON FOUND 90 KNOTS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT A FEW HOURS AGO. 
THIS COINCIDES WITH 77 AND 90 KNOT WIND ESTIMATES FROM SATELLITE
USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE...EMBEDDED CENTER WITHIN VERY DEEP
CONVECTION OF TOPS BETWEEN -70 TO -75 DEGREES CELSIUS.
HOWEVER...MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS ONLY 993 MB.  THIS PRESSURE APPEARS
TO BE TOO HIGH FOR SUCH STRONG WINDS BUT PREVIOUSLY...WE HAVE
OBSERVED THAT IN COMPACT HURRICANES. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED
TO 80 KNOTS BUT HIGHER GUSTS MAY BE EXPERIENCED IN THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE HURRICANE. THE UPPER-LOW AHEAD OF DANIELLE IS MOVING
WEST AND THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY FIGHTING THE SHEAR. MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE 200 MB WIND FORECASTS RELAX THE SHEAR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR
SO. SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL ALSO BRINGS THE HURRICANE TO
ABOUT 100 KNOTS. THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. 

INITIAL MOTION IS 285/17. DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS
GENERAL TRACK DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A
STRONG 500 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST EAST OF BERMUDA. MODELS ARE TIGHTLY
IN AGREEMENT WITH THAT TRACK.  THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE MODELS
GRADUALLY TURN DANIELLE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODELS AND GRADUALLY
TURNS DANIELLE NORTHWESTWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0900Z 20.8N  57.7W    80 KTS
12HR VT     27/1800Z 21.6N  60.2W    85 KTS
24HR VT     28/0600Z 22.5N  63.5W    85 KTS
36HR VT     28/1800Z 23.5N  66.5W    90 KTS
48HR VT     29/0600Z 25.0N  69.0W    95 KTS
72HR VT     30/0600Z 28.0N  73.5W   100 KTS
 
 
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