ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED AUG 26 1998 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO DISRUPT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS WEAKENED TO 75 KNOTS OR LESS. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. DANIELLE IS A SMALL SYSTEM WHICH IN GENERAL IS VERY SENSITIVE TO SHEAR. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW AHEAD OF DANIELLE IS RETROGRADING AS FORECAST BY MODELS BUT IT IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO RESTRICT THE WESTERN OUTFLOW. WE ARE FORECASTING SOME WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BUT ASSUMING THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED THEREAFTER. IN FACT...SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL INSISTS ON INTENSIFYING DANIELLE. INITIAL MOTION IS 290/18. A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN RESPONSE TO THAT FEATURE...THE GFDL..BAM-DEEP... NOGAPS AND LBAR MODELS MAINTAIN THE SAME WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES ALONG WITH THESE MODELS...INDICATING SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/2100Z 20.1N 53.4W 75 KTS 12HR VT 27/0600Z 21.0N 56.0W 70 KTS 24HR VT 27/1800Z 22.0N 59.0W 70 KTS 36HR VT 28/0600Z 23.0N 62.5W 80 KTS 48HR VT 28/1800Z 24.0N 65.5W 90 KTS 72HR VT 29/1800Z 25.5N 72.0W 100 KTS NNNN