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HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 26 1998
 
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER-LOW AHEAD OF DANIELLE AND THE FAST
FORWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS CAUSING SOME SHEARING. THE
EARLIER RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND IS NOT LONGER OCCURRING AT THIS
TIME. THE EYE IS NOT LONGER VISIBLE BUT IS PROBABLY EMBEDDED WITH AN
AREA OF ASYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 90
KNOTS AND IT HAS BEEN HELD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  THE REASONINGS ARE THAT GLOBAL MODELS
ARE MOVING THE UPPER-LOW TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
DANIELLE...CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR. IN ADDITION...SHIPS
INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL BRINGS DANIELLE TO ABOUT 105 KNOTS BY 72
HOURS.
 
DANIELLE CONTINUES MOVING AT 290/18. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC.
THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.
TRACK MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
ALTHOUGH GFDL...BAMD AND NOGAPS MOVE THE HURRICANE ON A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK.  WE HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE UPPER LOW AHEAD OF
DANIELLE BECAUSE IF THE HURRICANE GETS INVOLVED WITHIN THE FLOW
AROUND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER-LOW...A MORE WESTWARD COULD
OCCUR. THIS APPEARS NOT TO BE THE CASE AT THIS TIME.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/1500Z 19.3N  52.1W    90 KTS
12HR VT     27/0000Z 20.0N  55.0W    90 KTS
24HR VT     27/1200Z 21.0N  58.5W    90 KTS
36HR VT     28/0000Z 22.0N  62.0W   100 KTS
48HR VT     28/1200Z 23.0N  65.5W   105 KTS
72HR VT     29/1200Z 25.0N  72.0W   105 KTS
 
 
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