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HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST WED AUG 26 1998
 
AN EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CENTER OF
DANIELLE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN -70 DEG C CLOUD TOPS.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB ARE NOW 90 KNOTS...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS.  THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED OVER
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  
THIS IS CONFIRMED BY ANALYSES FROM THE COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR
METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE STUDIES...CIMSS.  THE UPPER LOW SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO IS EXPECTED 
TO SHIFT WEST AS THE ANTICYCLONE OVER DANIELLE BUILDS IN.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING. THIS IS 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL HURRICANE INTENSITY
PREDICTION SCHEME..SHIPS. 
 
DANIELLE HAS CONTINUED ON A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE THIS MORNING...
AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/19 KNOTS.  A STRONG 500 MB
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD KEEP DANIELLE ON A GENERAL WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND ALL OF THE 06Z
TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED ON THIS HEADING.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK MAINTAINS A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 
THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BETWEEN 48 AND
72 HOURS.  THIS IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL SOLUTION.  

BASED ON THIS TRACK A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...
ANY SOUTHWARD DEVIATION IN THE TRACK WOULD BRING DANIELLE CLOSER 
TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  THEREFORE...ALL INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD  
ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
HURRICANE.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0900Z 18.6N  50.0W    90 KTS
12HR VT     26/1800Z 19.4N  52.7W    95 KTS
24HR VT     27/0600Z 20.5N  56.4W   100 KTS
36HR VT     27/1800Z 21.5N  60.0W   105 KTS
48HR VT     28/0600Z 22.5N  63.5W   105 KTS
72HR VT     29/0600Z 24.5N  70.0W   105 KTS
 
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